机器人应用与劳动力收入分化——基于中国社会调查的实证分析
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F062

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国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY054)


Robot Applications and Labor Income Differentiation——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Chinese Social Survey
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    摘要:

    利用国际机器人联合会(IFR)与中国社会调查(CSS)追踪数据,通过构建“生产效率-议价能力-收入分化”三维模型,深入分析机器人应用对劳动力收入分配的影响机制。机器人技术总体上抑制了收入增长,其岗位替代效应超过补偿效应,通过弱化劳动者的议价能力改变劳资分配格局。技术冲击在技能方面存在显著差异,虽未展现出教育回报率的提升,但通过职业资格认证增强了专业技能溢价。同时,户籍制度导致的隐性市场分割进一步加剧技术冲击带来的分配差异。性别维度上,女性收入受到的冲击明显大于男性收入。该结果为平衡智能制造发展与分配公平提供理论依据,对数字时代劳动力市场政策制定具有重要参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the tracking data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and the Chinese Social Survey (CSS), this study conducts an in-depth analysis on how robot applications affect labor income distribution. The findings reveal that robotic technology on the whole suppresses income growth; its job substitution effect exceeds its compensatory effect by undermining workers’ bargaining power and thereby altering the labor-capital distribution pattern. Moreover, technological shocks exhibit marked differences across skill dimensions, which do not enhance the returns of formal education but do increase the premium on professional skills through vocational qualification certifications. In addition, the implicit market segmentation induced by the household registration system further accelerates the income disparities brought about by these technological shocks. And the adverse impact on women’s incomes is much worse than that on men’s incomes. By moving beyond the traditional binary framework of substitution versus compensation, this study constructs a three-dimensional model—production efficiency, bargaining power, and income differentiation, which reveals that technology intensifies income differentiation via the dual channels of productivity transmission and market segmentation. The findings provide a theoretical model for reconciling the development of intelligent manufacturing with equitable distribution, and offer valuable insights for labor market policy formulation in the digital age.

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陈潇潇,霍金艳.机器人应用与劳动力收入分化——基于中国社会调查的实证分析[J].上海理工大学学报(社科版),2026,48(3):296-307.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-03
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