Abstract:Based on the tracking data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and the Chinese Social Survey (CSS), this study conducts an in-depth analysis on how robot applications affect labor income distribution. The findings reveal that robotic technology on the whole suppresses income growth; its job substitution effect exceeds its compensatory effect by undermining workers’ bargaining power and thereby altering the labor-capital distribution pattern. Moreover, technological shocks exhibit marked differences across skill dimensions, which do not enhance the returns of formal education but do increase the premium on professional skills through vocational qualification certifications. In addition, the implicit market segmentation induced by the household registration system further accelerates the income disparities brought about by these technological shocks. And the adverse impact on women’s incomes is much worse than that on men’s incomes. By moving beyond the traditional binary framework of substitution versus compensation, this study constructs a three-dimensional model—production efficiency, bargaining power, and income differentiation, which reveals that technology intensifies income differentiation via the dual channels of productivity transmission and market segmentation. The findings provide a theoretical model for reconciling the development of intelligent manufacturing with equitable distribution, and offer valuable insights for labor market policy formulation in the digital age.